Saturday, March 26, 2011

What if?

You live in a semi-rural area. The closest big town is the county seat and is a ghost of what what it was once. The population is 82% white, 10% black, the rest a mix of stranded Latinos and wanders from other countries who have little restaurants and businesses.

The area was hard hit by the first wave of the economic meltdown but life, on the surface, is still good. You know people who are hurting, you can see the empty storefronts from when money flowed, but you think it will all come back. Then the second wave of the meltdown hits. Perhaps triggered by gas prices. Perhaps by the bankruptcy of European states. Perhaps both.

Your area, which was struggling, cuts services to the bone, perhaps deeper. Money gets tight and the number of people who actually have little or nothing to eat, forget about cable, increase.

Your state elections place a right wing group who wrap themselves in the flag and the cross into power. The economic situation continues to worsen.

Two years later.

You and your elderly wife own a nice parcel of farmland. You did your time in Vietnam and lost your belief in God. Your neighbor wants a big chunk of that land. He is the brother of the county power broker. He offers you half what you paid. You say "No."

You start getting denied service at certain businesses. Your wife has a friend who calls and asks if it is true you sometimes let homeless people camp down by your creek. The same people who may be involved in _________. The local pastor of the church that has grown tremendously in the last five years comes by and invites you to join. You refuse.

Two months later you and your wife are found dead. The Sheriff raids the creek camp. Four months later your parcel, because you have no heirs or a valid will goes to auction. Who gets it for next to nothing?

Dat Le, the owner of the one profitable restaurant in town is approached for a campaign contribution. He does not pay. His 17 year old daughter is abducted and raped. The investigation goes nowhere. Dat joins the church and tithes. His daughter commits suicide two years later.

The woman who owned the one art gallery in town and is know as a liberal has a fatal car wreck.

You are a Christian and a member, one of ten, of the local Catholic church. You and the other nine are getting pressured to join the super church. What do you do?

The local Latinos have been confined to a small area. A ghetto. They are illegal and are kept there until the feds show up. The feds are never notified. They work in the fields. What do you do?

I am a Christian. My version of one. That is perfectly legal still in the USA. The USA has a separation of church and state. What happens when the state becomes the church? Or the state no longer can enforce the separation?

I am on cordial terms with someone. She is a placid, funny older woman who has since retired. I mentioned one day that XXXX would not make a good President. She got extremely angry. In the blink of an eye I became the enemy. That kind of angry is restrained only by tenuous, invisible bonds that are far more fragile, because they are artificial, than you ever want to know.

The hate, the anger, the desire to profit at your expense, the blind need to destroy is out there. Surviving a major change only starts with canned goods. That only gets you to the first step on a very long road.

26 comments:

  1. At one point, I would have said people couldn't be like that. I was idealistic and thought people behaved in the interest of the common good as well as logically. A number of things have dispelled that notion.

    The first was interning and working for Congress for a year in DC. Even though I worked for two people I consider honorable, I still saw how the system worked. Next, I worked for a number of non-profit organizations and got my eyes opened in that world. I was fast becoming a cynic.

    Many experiences of working for the elections dealing with ballots (not candidates) over the years were positive. The last one a few years ago was not when I saw what seemed to be abuses of the system.

    Lately, we were totally screwed on a real estate deal and I lost my last bit of remaining trust that people with power can be trusted.

    After recently reading "Bright-sided: How the Relentless Promotion of Positive Thinking has Undermined America" and "Mistakes were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions & Hurtful Acts," I'm worried about this country and our future!

    In a crisis, humans are likely to revert to a tribal nature and no matter how much you bond with your neighbors, they may not consider you part of their tribe when it comes right down to it.

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  2. What you're describing sounds like most of US history. We may look back on the rise and fall of the middle class as an aberration. The ease with which the Kochs redirected the libertarian cause does not bode well for future 3rd party political movements. The return to feudalism seems almost certain.

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  3. You have made a fairly good description of my neighborhood around the farm. A lot of the locals think what they own is theirs and what their neighbor owns is theirs too, until they are called out then they back down or deny they ever said it.

    Only trust a small group who earn it and then not completely.

    Jim in MO.

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  4. Making yourself useful to a community is one step in fighting tribalism. Ask the question "am I more useful alive than dead or shooed away?" and honestly answer from the perspective of not-your-tribe people who could affect you.

    Hate and revenge are expensive emotions to act on. Sure, you could probably get away with something or get something for robbery-murder, but the same effort could make a stronger/wealthier/better place for everyone.

    There are folks who need killin', or at least marked and banished, and the act of doing this correctly can help add a little civilization to a group who may not be of the same tribe.

    Don't forget that for something to be "exclusive and desirable" most people have to be excluded from access while using PR to get agreement that such a thing or condition is good/right. Diamonds are such a thing that deBeers upgraded over a hundred years from merely very hard rock to a required Bride-Price. 20 head of animals (bio-machines for converting relatively worthless land into tasty milk/cheese/meat) and a freezer would be more useful to the new couple. Can you identify the difference between a $200 synthetic 2.0 ct.diamond and a $15K mined diamond? I can't.

    I know what a 1964 US Quarter is, and how to test it cheaply and swiftly. A silver 1964 Quarter is nearly 2 gallons of gas, more than a pound of Belgian dark chocolate at Trader Joe's, or a deluxe big hamburger at a sit-down joint. Folks learn about value fast when needed.

    Without a central gov't retirement tax/scam to provide for old-age money (you don't need "income" if you have money), the multi-generational household will re-emerge as the primary living arrangement for successful families/tribes. There will be communes and cults, just like now, but the "nuclear" family of mom-dad-kids (g-parents remote) will be too risky without some extended family or long-term neighbors. Intentional "single motherhood" will become the rarest of family organizations, far less common than orphans.

    I expect GLBTG-confusion to drop out of sight, much as hetro-group marriage is now. Everyone will be trying their best to blend in, become unexceptional and most-acceptable.

    Politics without the ability to invisibly tax by fiat currency will become much more conservative in spending. How do you tax someone without a money-income who seems to lack mobile assets? It's much less efficient/effective, and the farmer will fight the system, as they have always. Feudal tax and obligation structures may emerge.

    Cheers.

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  5. It's probably closer to human history than US history. The version taught up to HS is stories of sunshine.

    Being positive is a good thing. Yet I know people who believed in the don't think negative thoughts, visualize it, etc. even in the bankruptcy that came as a result.

    I read a book by a man whose theory was the lack of a farming class would destroy America. Why? Because their reality is grounded in a true reality. If A happens then B will happen and no amount of wishful thinking will change it.

    I am really beginning to believe that it isn't about guns and beans. That will get you the first snowfall. It's the winter afterwards that is going to be interesting.

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  6. I've been reading GardenSERF for a while. Good stuff easily overlooked. People are the same no matter what continent they are on, and there are people much like the left and right of Germany 1919 in North America 2011. We also have the 60-80% who would like to sit on the side and join the winners when they are identified.

    http://gardenserf.wordpress.com/2011/03/27/the-years-of-crisis-and-real-blood-in-the-streets/

    Lots of links, too. Heavy.

    Cheers.

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  7. I have been really sick for a few days, but I did get to AA III, Migration. Oh my, I love the book! What a wonderful mix of supernatural and real world grit. Lost for words which is hard for me, thanks so much Nova!

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  8. Thanks pdxr13, I will look at it tomorrow.

    getyourselfconnected,

    I hope you feel better. Glad you liked it.

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  9. nova,

    Promised you a Thompson story, so here's the abbreviated version...

    When I was just a toddler my dad was a contractor with a side biz of dealing surplus weapons between various government agencies.

    He got a contract to clear some land, as did a competitor on an adjoining parcel. My dad's crew was making the other outfit look bad, so the competitor was coming down at night and shooting holes in my dad's equipment to slow'em down.

    The local sheriff was sympathetic but pragmatic -- had to catch the guy in the act, and then he'd still get off easy. They determined giving him some of his own medicine might teach him a lesson, though.

    That night -- after the guy parked his truck and walked down the hill a ways to his usual shooting perch -- my dad & the sheriff opened up on his truck with a pair of drum Thompsons my dad had recently picked up from a nearby prison. When they were done there wasn't a foot of straight metal left anywhere.

    Needless to say the guy got the message.

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  10. TJ,

    Your Dad and the Sheriff? Nice that the local LE was there for your Dad. I can see the two of them laughing their asses off when they were done. Nice way to make a point.

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  11. What you've described is running rampant in a lot of small towns. I now live in the city suburbs, but come from a small town in which some of my relatives still live. I visited last year and exactly what you've described is going on there. I am trying to get my relatives to move, but they are holding onto the family farm. I tell them things are too far gone to make a stand. It's time to move somewhere safe and start over.

    Nick Matthews - Mr.

    Probiotic Supplements

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  12. As a "gun nut liberal", I'm quite sure if push comes to shove, or TSHTF, folks might come for us -- even though we are just two old ladies.

    The only saving grace is that we are very friendly with a lot of "gun show types" -- we have shot with some, and respect one another. I'd feel very comfortable with a lot of those folks -- as opposed to the "super patriots", and "uber-christians".

    Even if we were to be attacked, I'm sure we could, at least, give a good account of ourselves.

    I'd consider 5 or 6 to one acceptable.

    If every supposed "liberal" were actually willing to defend themselves, there might just be less loose talk, less absolute stupidity on the part of the far right.

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  13. I'm with you Anon.
    I'm a gun toting libral, and unlike what pdxr seems to think, hubby and I with our pagan marriage, poly-loves and general non-conformity aren't going to hide anywhere.

    We don't give two figs about the church groups, but I'm on the board of the county PF group, (which is a big thing here in rural NW Iowa), I shoot at the gun club a lot, I hang out with the garden club ladies, and I get involved in every conservation project in a 2 county radius. Half of our neighbors really like us. Quarter don't care, because they are too busy watching American Idle. And a quarter seem to dislike us. :-D (Can't imagine why.)

    Nova, I think you're right though. Everyone will be too busy surviving the first year, it's the next year that will be interesting as tribes start to solidify and those of us who believe in freedom have to insist that our version be included in the definition.

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  14. Good for you Jennie. I'm originally from the Canadian Prairies, Saskatchewan is full of gun-toting Socialists (which is not such a scary word up north) and I'm proud to be one of them.

    As a recovering ex-Mormon atheist, I'm disturbed by the influence that right wing religious politics is exerting on Canada's political system, it's bleeding across the border at an alarming rate.

    It's sad, many of the people I liked, friends and family, can get quite twisted once you throw religion into the mix. I've had to cut many people out of my life. Being an "out" rationalist atheist, the amount of vitriol that occasionally comes my way is shocking. Helps to weed out the crazies though.

    Hopefully my efforts to build strong relationships with rational people will provide the support network we need in the future.

    One thing I can say about Mormons, not only do they expect the world to end ugly and soon, they actually prepare for it. FYI, sacks of wheat make great forts when you're little! :)

    Boy Scout motto: Be Prepared

    Mormon Boy Scout motto (we had our own troops): Be Prepared for Armageddon

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  15. Jennie,

    Yeah. At first I think everyone, well most people, will try to work together. Why? Because people are like that, they will believe everything will be fixed eventually and if they to out of control they will pay when order is restored.

    Once the idea that things are not going back to normal is when people start choosing sides. From there, in most places, it will be anywhere from a pain in the ass to outright ugly.

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  16. Boy Scout motto: Be Prepared

    Mormon Boy Scout motto (we had our own troops): Be Prepared for Armageddon

    I like that Jon!

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  17. Thanks! It's usually good for a laugh. Well, except when I say it to my legion of Mormon cousins....

    Hmm, maybe I should quit the mormon jokes, they might not share their wheat with me. :)

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  18. Hi, first time at your blog. In this post I wasnt sure if you were writing a hypothetical or describing the county I live in. Elko Nevada. I know of events similar to what you described going on going on here and now. I think its always been this way everywhere throughout history in nearly every major civilization and empire throughout history.

    I think I just became more aware of it. I mean, comparitively, did Rome have it better? Egypt? The Chinese empires? South american civilizations? You name it and in any empire the rich and powerful have always sat on top of the poor masses. They have structures, and systems in place to preserve the heirarchy. We are no different animals than those that have come before us. But as with all of them, our empire too is going to have to go through a majore shift. Perhaps we will become minions to China.

    Ive been striving lately just to see things for what they are and not what I want them to be, or what I think they should be. But even harder for me is to accept them for how they really are. I found this to be very empowering. I also started questioning where I got this notion to be at odds with how things really are. For example, where did I get this idea of social justice and equality. I mean thats really crap. Its an idea in American civics class that has NEVER been realized.

    I was born into a poor family with no connections, others are born into wealth and priviledge. Its silly of me to think this is not fair. and the more I resist the way things are and not accept them the more weak I become to change anything. Yet when we see it for what it is, we know it, we know how it interplays with us.

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  19. Geoffrey,

    Great comment and you have me thinking. Let me mull this over before I reply.

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  20. Geoffrey,

    Rome was dependent on grain from Egypt. Their need for it was their Achilles heel.

    Exploitation is what makes an empire an empire. The citizens of Rome did alright. The rulers of Rome did even better. Everyone else in the empire made sure they did.

    "Ive been striving lately just to see things for what they are and not what I want them to be, or what I think they should be. But even harder for me is to accept them for how they really are. I found this to be very empowering. I also started questioning where I got this notion to be at odds with how things really are. For example, where did I get this idea of social justice and equality. I mean thats really crap. Its an idea in American civics class that has NEVER been realized."

    Even the idea that it is possible is enough to keep people in line. Nevermind the odds of it happening are dropping year by year. Everyone believes they can win the lottery.

    Seeing things as they are is hard, at least for me. Because once you do your realize your life has to change and that is a big deal.

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  21. Awesome.

    Just ran upon your blog today, via a commenter at mine.

    Good and thought provoking.

    AP

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  22. Hey Arctic,

    Thanks. Might be dull for awhile...

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  23. Just finished reading all three of the AA books, which I enjoyed very much. Hoping there is another :) Actually found your blog looking for the next installment and am enjoying it as well.

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  24. Birdie,

    Thanks. I appreciate it.

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  25. Nova,

    Couple of points. I just finished two months with Max and crew. Gardener Summer and the three AA books. Really enjoyed the series with a few small issues.

    A)The overuse of the word "Jeebus". Not sure what you are aiming at with that but it distracts from an otherwise excellent narrative.

    B)The general anti-conservative leanings of Gardener and the books in general. Here is the thing, not all traditionalists are rabid neo-nazis or christian totalitarians.

    C)I don't remember any positive right-wing groups in the books. Also noticeably absent was any mention of Constitutional Militia groups or charitable Restorationists.

    You can check my sig link if interested or contact me for research material if interested. There are many groups who would be working towards a LAWFUL rebuilding of the Republic.

    In the scenarios above the answer is simple, corruption is corruption, evil is evil regardless of its mask. The fact that is it "local elected right-wingers" that are oppressing and abusing the people makes no difference. The Citizens have a right and duty to resist and remove said petty tyrants.

    In a WROL scenario like 'AA' local leaders would have to tread carefully indeed, lest they end up decorating a sturdy tree in the town square.

    To quote a friend of mine..."This has all happened before, it will happen again. What makes us think we are so damn special."

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  26. Sandman,

    Good points.

    a. The Ulysses Press version of AA II should be almost "Jeebus" free. I toned that down in AA IV also.

    b. "Here is the thing, not all traditionalists are rabid neo-nazis or christian totalitarians."

    True. Yet who would Gardener shoot? The ones that are not would be passed by. It's like writing about a lawman in the old west to me. Do you write about the bad guys he kills or the church picnic he attended last month?

    c) I am going to try an answer a few things here if I can.

    I am not anti-christian. I am extremely hostile to people who wrap themselves up in Jesus and the flag to prey on other people.

    I also think that in a period like the one I am writing about the moderates will be run over by extremists.

    "In the scenarios above the answer is simple, corruption is corruption, evil is evil regardless of its mask. The fact that is it "local elected right-wingers" that are oppressing and abusing the people makes no difference. The Citizens have a right and duty to resist and remove said petty tyrants."

    I believe this also. The problem, to me at least, is getting to the point where there is enough stability for this to happen. When people are scared and world is in a state of flux sanity is not the first option for most.

    "To quote a friend of mine..."This has all happened before, it will happen again. What makes us think we are so damn special."

    We are not. We also have short memories. I hope for a reset rather than a restart.

    Perhaps I am overly pessimistic. My background, reading, and research tend to point to a world that will be, for a period, extremely chaotic.

    Thanks for reading and leaving this.

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